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Best Guess · Puzzle #37 · Thursday, November 5

Best Guess: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Best Guess.

  1. 1. How many farms were there in the US in 2022?

    The answer: about 1.9 million. That was a 7 percent drop from the 2017 Census of Agriculture.

    Napkin math
    1. 330Mpeople in the US
    2. ÷100people for each farm

    ≈3.3Mfarms

    The real answer is about 1.9 million farms (USDA Economic Research Service). To reason it out, take 330 million people in the US, divided by 100 people for each farm, and you get about 3.3 million farms. The estimate is 1.7 times too high, close enough to score 7.6 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between 950,000 farms and 3.8 million farms was worth 7.0 or more.

    Source: USDA Economic Research Service, 2022 Census of Agriculture: Number of U.S. farms falls below 2 million

  2. 2. How many students took part in high school sports in the US in 2024-25?

    The answer: about 8.27 million. It was a record, topping the 8,062,302 of the year before.

    Napkin math
    1. 15Mhigh school students in the US
    2. ×0.5of them play a school sport

    ≈7.5Mparticipants

    The true figure is about 8.27 million participants (National Federation of State High School Associations). Without looking anything up, take 15 million high school students in the US, times 0.5 of them play a school sport, and you get about 7.5 million participants. The estimate is 1.1 times too low, close enough to score 9.6 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between 4.1 million participants and 17 million participants was worth 7.0 or more.

    Source: National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS), Participation in High School Sports Hits Record High with Sizable Increase in 2024-25

  3. 3. How many Americans aged 12 and up listen to or watch a podcast in a typical month?

    The answer: about 167 million. That's 58% of Americans 12 and up, an all-time high.

    Napkin math
    1. 290Mpeople aged 12 and up
    2. ÷2people per listener (about half)

    ≈145Mpeople

    The real answer is about 167 million people (Edison Research / SSRS). To reason it out, take 290 million people aged 12 and up, divided by 2 people per listener (about half), and you get about 150 million people. It's 1.2 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 9.4 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between 84 million people and 330 million people was worth 7.0 or more.

    Source: Edison Research / SSRS, The Infinite Dial 2026

  4. 4. In early 2017 the world had about 7.5 billion people. How many hours of YouTube did they watch a day?

    The answer: about a billion. YouTube said that was ten times as much as in 2012.

    Napkin math
    1. 7.5Bpeople in the world
    2. ÷4people per YouTube viewer (about 1 in 4)
    3. ÷2viewers per hour watched (half an hour each)

    ≈938Mhours

    The real answer is about a billion (YouTube Official Blog). On a napkin, take 7.5 billion people in the world, divided by 4 people per YouTube viewer (about 1 in 4), divided by 2 viewers per hour watched (half an hour each), and you get about 940 million hours. It's 1.1 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 9.7 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between 500 million hours and 2 billion hours scores at least 7.0.

    Source: YouTube Official Blog, You know what's cool? A billion hours

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