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Best Guess · Puzzle #34 · Monday, November 2

Best Guess: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Best Guess.

  1. 1. How many trips did Americans take on public transit (buses, subways, trains) in 2024?

    The answer: about 7.66 billion. Ridership kept climbing in 2025, its fifth straight year of growth since the pandemic.

    Napkin math
    1. 330Mpeople in the US
    2. ×2transit trips each a month
    3. ×12months a year

    ≈7.92Btrips

    The true figure is about 7.66 billion trips (Metro Magazine). To reason it out, take 330 million people in the US, times 2 transit trips each a month, times 12 months a year, and you get about 7.9 billion trips. That is almost exactly the real number, and a guess like it scores 9.9 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between 3.8 billion trips and 15 billion trips scores at least 7.0.

    Source: Metro Magazine (quoting the American Public Transportation Association), New APTA Data Shows Public Transportation Drives Economic Growth

  2. 2. How many Americans play video games?

    The answer: more than 205 million. The video game industry's trade group says the number keeps growing.

    Napkin math
    1. 330Mpeople in the US
    2. ×0.6of them play video games

    ≈198Mplayers

    The true figure is more than 205 million players (Entertainment Software Association, as of 2025). On a napkin, take 330 million people in the US, times 0.6 of them play video games, and you get about 200 million players. That lands all but on the answer, worth 9.8 out of 10 as a guess. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between 100 million players and 410 million players scores at least 7.0.

    Source: Entertainment Software Association, 2025 Essential Facts About the U.S. Video Game Industry

  3. 3. How many smartphones were shipped worldwide in 2025?

    The answer: about 1.26 billion. Shipments grew 2.3% in the year's last quarter, led by Samsung and Apple.

    Napkin math
    1. 5Bpeople with a smartphone
    2. ÷3years per new phone

    ≈1.67Bsmartphones

    The answer comes to about 1.26 billion smartphones (GSMArena). On a napkin, take 5 billion people with a smartphone, divided by 3 years per new phone, and you get about 1.7 billion smartphones. That comes out 1.3 times too high, and a guess that far off still scores 8.8 out of 10. Any guess from 630 million smartphones to 2.5 billion smartphones scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

    Source: GSMArena (reporting IDC), IDC: Smartphone shipments up 2.3% in Q4 2025, Apple is the clear winner

  4. 4. How many hours a year does the average American (age 15 and up) spend on housework?

    The answer: about 204 hours. Housework here means cleaning and laundry; cooking and cleanup, lawn care and shopping are counted separately.

    Napkin math
    1. 4hours a week
    2. ×52weeks a year

    ≈208hours

    The true figure is about 204 hours (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 2025). On a napkin, take 4 hours a week, times 52 weeks a year, and you get about 210 hours. That lands all but on the answer, worth 9.9 out of 10 as a guess. Any guess from 100 hours to 410 hours scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

    Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Time Use Survey, Table 1: Time spent in primary activities, 2025 annual averages

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