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Best Guess · Puzzle #31 · Friday, October 30

Best Guess: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Best Guess.

  1. 1. How many motor vehicles (cars, trucks, buses and motorcycles) were registered in the US in 2024?

    The answer: about 297.5 million. Trucks (which include SUVs and pickups) made up nearly two-thirds of them; automobiles were about 97 million.

    Napkin math
    1. 130Mhouseholds in the US
    2. ×2vehicles each

    ≈260Mvehicles

    The answer comes to about 297.5 million vehicles (Federal Highway Administration). To reason it out, take 130 million households in the US, times 2 vehicles each, and you get about 260 million vehicles. The estimate is 1.1 times too low, close enough to score 9.4 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between 150 million vehicles and 600 million vehicles was worth 7.0 or more.

    Source: Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2024, Table MV-1: State Motor-Vehicle Registrations

  2. 2. How many searches does Google handle per year?

    The answer: more than 5 trillion. Google gives 5 trillion as a floor ('more than') and says AI features are widening the kinds of questions people ask.

    Napkin math
    1. 4Bpeople using Google
    2. ×3searches each a day
    3. ×365days a year

    ≈4.38Tsearches

    The answer comes to more than 5 trillion searches (Google, as of 2025). Without looking anything up, take 4 billion people using Google, times 3 searches each a day, times 365 days a year, and you get about 4.4 trillion searches. The estimate is 1.1 times too low, close enough to score 9.4 out of 10. Any guess from 2.5 trillion searches to 10 trillion searches scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

    Source: Google (The Keyword blog), AI, personalization and the future of shopping

  3. 3. How many pitches were thrown in the 2025 Major League Baseball regular season?

    The answer: about 710,000. Hitters struck out 40,645 times along the way.

    Napkin math
    1. 30teams in MLB
    2. ×162games each
    3. ×150pitches a team faces in a game

    ≈729kpitches

    The true figure is about 710,000 pitches (Major League Baseball). To reason it out, take 30 teams in MLB, times 162 games each, times 150 pitches a team faces in a game, and you get about 730,000 pitches. That is almost exactly the real number, and a guess like it scores 9.9 out of 10. Any guess from 360,000 pitches to 1.4 million pitches scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

    Source: Major League Baseball (MLB Stats API), 2025 regular-season team hitting stats

  4. 4. How many pet dogs live in the US?

    The answer: about 89.7 million. That's up from about 52.9 million pet dogs in 1996.

    Napkin math
    1. 130Mhouseholds in the US
    2. ×0.4of them with a dog
    3. ×1.5dogs in each

    ≈78Mdogs

    The answer comes to about 89.7 million dogs (American Veterinary Medical Association, as of 2024). Without looking anything up, take 130 million households in the US, times 0.4 of them with a dog, times 1.5 dogs in each, and you get about 78 million dogs. The estimate is 1.1 times too low, close enough to score 9.4 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between 45 million dogs and 180 million dogs scores at least 7.0.

    Source: American Veterinary Medical Association, Chart of the month: Long-term trends in pet populations

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