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Best Guess · Puzzle #30 · Thursday, October 29

Best Guess: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Best Guess.

  1. 1. How many total miles did all vehicles drive on US roads in 2025?

    The answer: about 3.3 trillion miles. FHWA puts 2024 travel at 9,714 vehicle-miles for every person in the country.

    Napkin math
    1. 250Mcars in the US
    2. ×12kmiles each a year

    ≈3Tvehicle miles

    The answer comes to about 3.3 trillion miles (Federal Highway Administration). To reason it out, take 250 million cars in the US, times 12,000 miles each a year, and you get about 3 trillion vehicle miles. It's 1.1 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 9.6 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between 1.7 trillion vehicle miles and 6.6 trillion vehicle miles was worth 7.0 or more.

    Source: Federal Highway Administration, Traffic Volume Trends, December 2025

  2. 2. How many packages did UPS deliver in 2025?

    The answer: 5.2 billion. That works out to an average of 20.8 million packages per day.

    Napkin math
    1. 130Mhouseholds in the US
    2. ×1UPS package each a week
    3. ×52weeks a year

    ≈6.76Bpackages

    The answer comes to 5.2 billion packages (United Parcel Service, Inc.). On a napkin, take 130 million households in the US, times 1 UPS package each a week, times 52 weeks a year, and you get about 6.8 billion packages. It's 1.3 times too high, which as a guess would still have scored 8.9 out of 10. Any guess from 2.6 billion packages to 10 billion packages scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

    Source: United Parcel Service, Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025

  3. 3. Volunteers combed all 843 acres of Central Park in October 2018 to count its gray squirrels. How many did they estimate live there?

    The answer: about 2,373. 323 volunteer Squirrel Sighters did the counting; the report came out in 2019.

    Napkin math
    1. 843acres of park
    2. ×3squirrels an acre

    ≈2,529squirrels

    The answer comes to about 2,373 squirrels (The Squirrel Census). Without looking anything up, take 843 acres of park, times 3 squirrels an acre, and you get about 2,500 squirrels. It's 1.1 times too high, which as a guess would still have scored 9.7 out of 10. Any guess from 1,200 squirrels to 4,700 squirrels scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

    Source: The Squirrel Census, Central Park Squirrel Census 2019

  4. 4. How many tickets did Taylor Swift's Eras Tour sell across all its shows (2023-2024)?

    The answer: about 10.06 million. Swift played 149 shows across 51 stadiums on five continents.

    Napkin math
    1. 50stadiums on the tour
    2. ×3shows at each
    3. ×65kfans a show

    ≈9.75Mtickets

    The true figure is about 10.06 million tickets (Pollstar). On a napkin, take 50 stadiums on the tour, times 3 shows at each, times 65,000 fans a show, and you get about 9.8 million tickets. That lands all but on the answer, worth 9.9 out of 10 as a guess. Because only the ratio counts, anything between 5 million tickets and 20 million tickets was worth 7.0 or more.

    Source: Pollstar, Taylor Swift's Eras Tour Smashes All-Time Touring Record, Surpassed $2 Billion

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