Best Guess · Puzzle #28 · Tuesday, October 27
Best Guess: the answers
Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Best Guess.
1. How many places sell gasoline (fueling outlets) in the US?
The answer: about 148,000. Convenience stores sell about 80% of the fuel Americans buy.
Napkin math - 300Mvehicles on US roads
- ÷7days between fill-ups (one a week)
- ÷300fill-ups a station handles a day
≈143kfueling outlets
The true figure is about 148,000 fueling outlets (NACS, as of 2024). Without looking anything up, take 300 million vehicles on US roads, divided by 7 days between fill-ups (one a week), divided by 300 fill-ups a station handles a day, and you get about 140,000 fueling outlets. That is almost exactly the real number, and a guess like it scores 9.8 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between 74,000 fueling outlets and 300,000 fueling outlets scores at least 7.0.
Source: NACS (National Association of Convenience Stores), Convenience Stores Sell the Most Gas
2. How many visits did Walt Disney World's Magic Kingdom, the world's busiest theme park, get in 2023?
The answer: about 17.7 million. Attendance rose 3.4% from 2022, keeping it the top theme park in the world.
Napkin math - 50kvisitors a day
- ×365days a year
≈18.3Mvisits
The true figure is about 17.7 million visits (Themed Entertainment Association and AECOM). On a napkin, take 50,000 visitors a day, times 365 days a year, and you get about 18 million visits. That lands all but on the answer, worth 9.9 out of 10 as a guess. Any guess from 8.9 million visits to 35 million visits scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.
Source: Themed Entertainment Association and AECOM, TEA/AECOM 2023 Theme Index and Museum Index
3. Major League Baseball plays 2,430 regular-season games. How many baseballs must be rubbed with mud to get ready for them?
The answer: at least about 380,000. Each ball gets at least a 30-second rub with special mud from the banks of a Delaware River tributary.
Napkin math - 2,430games a season
- ×100balls a game
≈243kbaseballs
The true figure is at least about 380,000 (NBC News, as of 2025). To reason it out, take 2,430 games a season, times 100 balls a game, and you get about 240,000 baseballs. It's 1.6 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 8.1 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between 190,000 baseballs and 760,000 baseballs scores at least 7.0.
Source: NBC News, Special mud rubbed on all MLB baseballs has unique, 'magical' properties, study finds
4. How many existing (previously owned) homes were sold in the US in 2025?
The answer: about 4.06 million. That was unchanged from 2024 and matched the lowest level since 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Napkin math - 130Mhomes in the US
- ×0.65of them owned by the people living there
- ÷20years between sales
≈4.22Mhomes
The true figure is about 4.06 million homes (CNBC, citing the National Association of Realtors). To reason it out, take 130 million homes in the US, times 0.65 of them owned by the people living there, divided by 20 years between sales, and you get about 4.2 million homes. That lands all but on the answer, worth 9.8 out of 10 as a guess. Because only the ratio counts, anything between 2 million homes and 8.1 million homes was worth 7.0 or more.