daily.surf

Best Guess · Puzzle #25 · Saturday, October 24

Best Guess: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Best Guess.

  1. 1. How many babies were born in the US each day, on average, in 2024?

    The answer: about 9,900. That works out to roughly one American baby born every nine seconds.

    Napkin math
    1. 330Mpeople in the US
    2. ÷80years a lifetime
    3. ÷365days a year

    ≈11.3kbabies

    The true figure is about 9,900 babies (CDC National Center for Health Statistics). On a napkin, take 330 million people in the US, divided by 80 years a lifetime, divided by 365 days a year, and you get about 11,000 babies. It's 1.1 times too high, which as a guess would still have scored 9.4 out of 10. Any guess from 5,000 babies to 20,000 babies scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

    Source: CDC National Center for Health Statistics, FastStats - Births and Natality

  2. 2. How many chicken wings did Americans eat during Super Bowl LX in 2026?

    The answer: about 1.48 billion. That was about 10 million more wings than the year before.

    Napkin math
    1. 130Mhouseholds in the US
    2. ×10wings each on game day

    ≈1.3Bwings

    The answer comes to about 1.48 billion wings (National Chicken Council). On a napkin, take 130 million households in the US, times 10 wings each on game day, and you get about 1.3 billion wings. It's 1.1 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 9.4 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between 740 million wings and 3 billion wings was worth 7.0 or more.

    Source: National Chicken Council, Americans to Eat 1.48 Billion Chicken Wings for Super Bowl LX

  3. 3. How many hours did Netflix members spend watching Netflix in the second half of 2025?

    The answer: 96 billion. Viewing rose 2% from a year earlier, driven by a 9% increase in viewing of Netflix's own originals.

    Napkin math
    1. 300Mmemberships worldwide
    2. ×2hours each a day
    3. ×184days from July to December

    ≈110Bhours

    The true figure is 96 billion hours (Netflix, Inc.). Without looking anything up, take 300 million memberships worldwide, times 2 hours each a day, times 184 days from July to December, and you get about 110 billion hours. The estimate is 1.1 times too high, close enough to score 9.4 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between 48 billion hours and 190 billion hours scores at least 7.0.

    Source: Netflix, Inc., Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter

  4. 4. How many times a day does the average American reach for their phone?

    The answer: 352 times. That's once every two minutes and 43 seconds, nearly four times the 96 a day Asurion found in 2019.

    Napkin math
    1. 16hours awake
    2. ×60minutes an hour
    3. ÷4minutes between checks

    ≈240times

    The real answer is 352 times (Asurion, as of 2022). To reason it out, take 16 hours awake, times 60 minutes an hour, divided by 4 minutes between checks, and you get about 240 times. It's 1.5 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 8.3 out of 10. Any guess from 180 times to 700 times scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

    Source: Asurion (press release), The New Normal: Phone Use is Up Nearly 4-Fold Since 2019, According to Tech Care Company Asurion

All of puzzle #25 · The archive