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Best Guess · Puzzle #23 · Thursday, October 22

Best Guess: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Best Guess.

  1. 1. How many people died in the US each day, on average, in 2024 (all causes)?

    The answer: about 8,400. US births still outnumbered deaths in 2024 by more than half a million.

    Napkin math
    1. 330Mpeople in the US
    2. ÷80years a lifetime
    3. ÷365days a year

    ≈11.3kpeople

    The answer comes to about 8,400 people (CDC National Center for Health Statistics). Without looking anything up, take 330 million people in the US, divided by 80 years a lifetime, divided by 365 days a year, and you get about 11,000 people. That comes out 1.3 times too high, and a guess that far off still scores 8.7 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between 4,200 people and 17,000 people was worth 7.0 or more.

    Source: CDC National Center for Health Statistics, FastStats - Deaths and Mortality

  2. 2. How many Tootsie Rolls does Tootsie Roll Industries make in a day?

    The answer: about 64 million. They are made by Tootsie Roll Industries, the company behind Tootsie Pops.

    Napkin math
    1. 330Mpeople in the US
    2. ×50Tootsie Rolls each a year (a bag of minis)
    3. ÷365days a year

    ≈45.2MTootsie Rolls

    The true figure is about 64 million Tootsie Rolls (Tootsie Roll Industries). On a napkin, take 330 million people in the US, times 50 Tootsie Rolls each a year (a bag of minis), divided by 365 days a year, and you get about 45 million Tootsie Rolls. It's 1.4 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 8.5 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between 32 million Tootsie Rolls and 130 million Tootsie Rolls was worth 7.0 or more.

    Source: Tootsie Roll Industries, Frequently Asked Questions

  3. 3. How many home runs were hit in the 2025 Major League Baseball regular season, all teams combined?

    The answer: 5,650. Four players hit 50 or more, tying the most in a season in MLB history.

    Napkin math
    1. 30teams in MLB
    2. ×162games each
    3. ÷2teams in every game
    4. ×2home runs a game

    ≈4,860home runs

    The real answer is 5,650 home runs (Major League Baseball). Without looking anything up, take 30 teams in MLB, times 162 games each, divided by 2 teams in every game, times 2 home runs a game, and you get about 4,900 home runs. It's 1.2 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 9.3 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between 2,800 home runs and 11,000 home runs scores at least 7.0.

    Source: Major League Baseball (MLB Stats API), 2025 regular-season team hitting stats

  4. 4. How many colds do Americans catch in a year?

    The answer: more than 1 billion. Between 5 and 20 percent of Americans also get the flu each year.

    Napkin math
    1. 330Mpeople in the US
    2. ×3colds each a year

    ≈990Mcolds

    The answer comes to more than 1 billion colds (National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health). To reason it out, take 330 million people in the US, times 3 colds each a year, and you get about 990 million colds. That is almost exactly the real number, and a guess like it scores 10.0 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between 500 million colds and 2 billion colds was worth 7.0 or more.

    Source: National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health (NIH), Colds, Flu, and Complementary Health Approaches

All of puzzle #23 · The archive