Best Guess · Puzzle #19 · Sunday, October 18
Best Guess: the answers
Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Best Guess.
1. How many bachelor's degrees did US colleges award in the 2022-23 school year?
The answer is hidden while this question is still in play: it comes round again within 14 days.
2. How many cans of cranberry sauce did Ocean Spray sell in 2024?
The answer is hidden while this question is still in play: it comes round again within 14 days.
3. How long was the 2026 Tour de France route in total?
The answer: 3,320.7 km. The 2026 race started in Barcelona with a 19.6 km team time trial.
Napkin math - 20days of racing
- ×160kilometers a day (about 100 miles)
≈3,200kilometers
The true figure is 3,320.7 km (Tour de France). On a napkin, take 20 days of racing, times 160 kilometers a day (about 100 miles), and you get about 3,200 kilometers. That is almost exactly the real number, and a guess like it scores 9.8 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between 1,700 kilometers and 6,600 kilometers scores at least 7.0.
4. How much did movie theaters in the US and Canada take in at the box office in 2025?
The answer: $8.66 billion. 670 films were released that year, and the top earner was A Minecraft Movie.
Napkin math - 330Mpeople in the US
- ×2movies each a year
- ×$12a ticket
≈$7.92B
The true figure is $8.66 billion (Box Office Mojo). Without looking anything up, take 330 million people in the US, times 2 movies each a year, times $12 a ticket, and you get about $7.9 billion. It's 1.1 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 9.6 out of 10. Any guess from $4.3 billion to $17 billion scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.
Source: Box Office Mojo (IMDbPro), Domestic Yearly Box Office