Best Guess · Puzzle #17 · Friday, October 16
Best Guess: the answers
Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Best Guess.
1. How many rides did the New York City subway carry on an average weekday in 2025?
The answer is hidden while this question is still in play: it comes round again within 14 days.
2. How many pounds of fresh apples did the average American eat in 2021?
The answer: about 15.8 pounds. Bananas, at about 27 pounds a person, beat apples by a wide margin.
Napkin math - 52apples a year (one a week)
- ÷3apples to a pound
≈17.33pounds
The true figure is about 15.8 pounds (USDA Economic Research Service). On a napkin, take 52 apples a year (one a week), divided by 3 apples to a pound, and you get about 17 pounds. It's 1.1 times too high, which as a guess would still have scored 9.6 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between 7.9 pounds and 32 pounds scores at least 7.0.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System: Fruit (fresh)
3. How many years of an average American's life are spent asleep?
The answer: about 30 years. The time-use survey's sleep figure includes naps and spells of sleeplessness.
Napkin math - 80years of life
- ×8hours of sleep a night
- ÷24hours in a day
≈26.67years
The answer comes to about 30 years (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 2025). Without looking anything up, take 80 years of life, times 8 hours of sleep a night, divided by 24 hours in a day, and you get about 27 years. That comes out 1.1 times too low, and a guess that far off still scores 9.5 out of 10. Any guess from 15 years to 59 years scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.
4. How many songs did people in the US stream on demand (Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube and the like) in 2025?
The answer: about 1.4 trillion. Streams grew 4.6% from 2024; worldwide they topped 5.1 trillion.
Napkin math - 200Mlisteners in the US
- ×20songs each a day
- ×365days a year
≈1.46Tstreams
The real answer is about 1.4 trillion streams (Associated Press). On a napkin, take 200 million listeners in the US, times 20 songs each a day, times 365 days a year, and you get about 1.5 trillion streams. That lands all but on the answer, worth 9.8 out of 10 as a guess. Any guess from 700 billion streams to 2.8 trillion streams scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.