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Best Guess · Puzzle #15 · Wednesday, October 14

Best Guess: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Best Guess.

  1. 1. How many children under 18 (potential trick-or-treaters) lived in the US as of July 1, 2024?

    The answer: about 73.1 million. The Census Bureau counts about 133 million occupied homes as potential trick-or-treat stops.

    Napkin math
    1. 330Mpeople in the US
    2. ÷80years a lifetime
    3. ×18years of childhood

    ≈74.3Mchildren

    Source: US Census Bureau, Facts for Features: Halloween 2025

  2. 2. How many hot dogs do Americans eat between Memorial Day and Labor Day?

    The answer: about 7 billion. That's 818 hot dogs every second of peak hot dog season.

    Napkin math
    1. 330Mpeople in the US
    2. ×2hot dogs each a week
    3. ×14weeks of summer

    ≈9.24Bhot dogs

    Source: National Hot Dog and Sausage Council, Consumption Stats

  3. 3. How many doses of flu vaccine did manufacturers plan to supply the US for the 2024-25 flu season?

    The answer: about 148 million. Most of those doses were thimerosal-free and made in eggs.

    Napkin math
    1. 330Mpeople in the US
    2. ÷2people per flu shot (about half get one)

    ≈165Mdoses

    Source: CDC, Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Supply for the U.S. 2024-2025 Influenza Season

  4. 4. North America's roughly 400 amusement parks get more than 385 million guest visits in a typical year. How many rides do guests take?

    The answer: more than 1.7 billion. That's roughly four or five rides per visit.

    Napkin math
    1. 385Mvisits a year
    2. ×5rides a visit

    ≈1.93Brides

    Source: IAAPA, Annual Safety Reports

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