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Best Guess · Puzzle #10 · Friday, October 9

Best Guess: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Best Guess.

  1. 1. How many turkeys were raised in the US in 2025?

    The answer: about 193.5 million. Minnesota is the largest turkey-producing state.

    Napkin math
    1. 130Mhouseholds in the US
    2. ×1turkey each a year

    ≈130Mturkeys

    Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Turkeys Raised (released September 25, 2026)

  2. 2. How many gallons of bottled water did Americans drink in 2024?

    The answer: about 16.4 billion. That works out to 47.3 gallons for the average American, and bottled water is the country's No. 1 drink by volume.

    Napkin math
    1. 330Mpeople in the US
    2. ×365bottles each a year (one a day)
    3. ÷8bottles to a gallon

    ≈15.1Bgallons

    Source: International Bottled Water Association, Bottled water growth rate outperforms all other packaged drinks, by volume

  3. 3. How many fans attended NBA regular-season games in 2024-25, all arenas combined?

    The answer: about 22.3 million. The average game drew 18,153 fans.

    Napkin math
    1. 30teams in the NBA
    2. ×41home games each
    3. ×18kfans a game

    ≈22.1Mfans

    Source: Basketball-Reference (Sports Reference), 2024-25 NBA Season Summary: Advanced Stats

  4. 4. How many gallons of water does the average American use at home each day?

    The answer: about 82 gallons. The EPA says installing water-efficient fixtures could cut that by at least 20 percent.

    Napkin math
    1. 5flushes a day
    2. ×2gallons a flush
    3. +20gallons for a shower
    4. +30gallons for sinks, laundry, dishes and the yard

    ≈60gallons

    Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (WaterSense), Statistics and Facts

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