Price tags · Puzzle #38 · Friday, November 6

Price tags: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Price tags.

1. 1. A year of cheddar: At the US average price of cheddar cheese in August 2026, what would a family spend in a year using one pound a week?

   Think

   Sandwiches, tacos and mac and cheese

   The answer: about $311. BLS tracks natural cheddar's average store price every month in US cities.

   1. 52pounds one a week
   2. ×$5a pound

   ≈$260

   The answer comes to about $311 (US Bureau of Labor Statistics). Without looking anything up, take 52 pounds one a week, times $5 a pound, and you get about $260. The estimate is 1.2 times too low, close enough to score 9.2 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between $160 and $620 scores at least 7.0.

   Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Cheddar cheese, natural, per lb. (453.6 gm) in U.S. city average, average price, not seasonally adjusted

2. 2. A year at Home Depot: How much did Home Depot sell in its 2025 fiscal year?

   

   Stores

   2,359 at the end of the year

   Average ticket

   $90.56

   The answer: about $164.7 billion. Home Depot counted about 1.6 billion customer transactions in fiscal 2025.

   1. 2,300stores
   2. ×2,000customers each a day
   3. ×365days a year
   4. ×$90a purchase

   ≈$151B

   The answer comes to about $164.7 billion (The Home Depot). Without looking anything up, take 2,300 stores, times 2,000 customers each a day, times 365 days a year, times $90 a purchase, and you get about $150 billion. The estimate is 1.1 times too low, close enough to score 9.6 out of 10. Any guess from $82 billion to $330 billion scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

   Source: The Home Depot (PR Newswire), The Home Depot Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025 Results

3. 3. Halloween spending per person: How much did the average American who celebrates Halloween expect to spend on it in 2026, according to the National Retail Federation?

   

   Measured by

   NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics

   Planning to celebrate

   74% of consumers

   Most popular purchase

   Candy (96% of shoppers)

   The answer: about $115. That was about the same as 2025's $114.45 per person, with total spending forecast at $13.5 billion.

   1. $40on a costume
   2. +$30of candy
   3. +$30of decorations

   ≈$100

   The answer comes to about $115 (National Retail Federation). On a napkin, take $40 on a costume, plus $30 of candy, plus $30 of decorations, and you get about $100. It's 1.2 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 9.4 out of 10. Any guess from $58 to $230 scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

   Source: National Retail Federation, NRF Halloween Survey Shows Consumer Spending Expected to Reach $13.5 Billion

4. 4. Three months of DoorDash: DoorDash delivered 903 million orders in the last three months of 2025. How much did customers spend on them in that quarter?

   Counts

   Food, fees and tips on each order

   The answer: about $29.7 billion. The quarter's order count was up 32% on a year before, helped by DoorDash buying the UK's Deliveroo.

   1. 903Morders in the quarter
   2. ×$30an order

   ≈$27.1B

   The answer comes to about $29.7 billion (DoorDash). To reason it out, take 903 million orders in the quarter, times $30 an order, and you get about $27 billion. The estimate is 1.1 times too low, close enough to score 9.6 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between $15 billion and $59 billion was worth 7.0 or more.

   Source: DoorDash, DoorDash Releases Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results

All of puzzle #38 · The archive