Price tags · Puzzle #35 · Tuesday, November 3

Price tags: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Price tags.

1. 1. Thanksgiving dinner for 10: What did a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 cost in 2025, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation's survey?

   

   Measured by

   American Farm Bureau Federation, 40th annual survey

   16-pound frozen turkey

   $21.50

   Menu

   Turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, cranberries, veggie tray, pumpkin pie

   The answer: $55.18. That's about $5.52 per person, the third straight yearly decline from a record $64.05 in 2022.

   1. 10people at the table
   2. ×$5a plate for a home-cooked meal

   ≈$50

   The real answer is $55.18 (American Farm Bureau Federation, as of November 2025). Without looking anything up, take 10 people at the table, times $5 a plate for a home-cooked meal, and you get about $50. The estimate is 1.1 times too low, close enough to score 9.6 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between $28 and $110 scores at least 7.0.

   Source: American Farm Bureau Federation, Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines

2. 2. A day at Delta: How much did Delta Air Lines take in on an average day in 2025?

   

   Customers

   More than 200 million in 2025

   The answer: about $174 million. Delta called it a record year, with $5 billion in pre-tax profit and $1.3 billion shared with employees.

   1. 200Mcustomers a year
   2. ÷365days a year
   3. ×$300a ticket

   ≈$164M

   The true figure is about $174 million (Delta Air Lines). On a napkin, take 200 million customers a year, divided by 365 days a year, times $300 a ticket, and you get about $160 million. It's 1.1 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 9.8 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between $87 million and $350 million was worth 7.0 or more.

   Source: Delta Air Lines (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Delta Air Lines Announces December Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results

3. 3. Halloween candy: How much were Americans expected to spend on Halloween candy in 2026?

   

   Halloween shoppers buying sweets

   96%

   Most popular activity

   Handing out candy

   The answer: about $4.1 billion. Candy is the most common Halloween purchase, though costumes and decorations each drew a little more money.

   1. 130Mhouseholds in the US
   2. ×$30of candy each

   ≈$3.9B

   The answer comes to about $4.1 billion (National Retail Federation). Without looking anything up, take 130 million households in the US, times $30 of candy each, and you get about $3.9 billion. It's 1.1 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 9.8 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between $2 billion and $8.2 billion was worth 7.0 or more.

   Source: National Retail Federation, NRF Halloween Survey Shows Consumer Spending Expected to Reach $13.5 Billion

4. 4. One second of Amazon: How much did Amazon sell, on average, every second of 2025?

   

   Counts

   All net sales: stores, sellers, ads, Prime and AWS

   The answer: about $22,700. Amazon's net sales grew 12% in 2025, from $638.0 billion to $716.9 billion.

   1. 300Mcustomers worldwide
   2. ×$2,000each a year
   3. ÷365days a year
   4. ÷86.4kseconds a day

   ≈$19k

   The answer comes to about $22,700 (Amazon.com, Inc.). On a napkin, take 300 million customers worldwide, times $2,000 each a year, divided by 365 days a year, divided by 86,400 seconds a day, and you get about $19,000. The estimate is 1.2 times too low, close enough to score 9.2 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between $11,000 and $45,000 scores at least 7.0.

   Source: Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Amazon.com Announces Fourth Quarter Results

All of puzzle #35 · The archive