Price tags · Puzzle #32 · Saturday, October 31

Price tags: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Price tags.

1. 1. Raising a child: What did the USDA project parents would spend to raise a child born in 2015?

   

   Measured by

   US Department of Agriculture

   Report

   Expenditures on Children by Families

   The answer: about $233,610. It was the USDA's most recent estimate; a child born in 2010 had been projected to cost $226,920.

   1. $1,000a month
   2. ×12months a year
   3. ×18years from birth through age 17

   ≈$216k

   The true figure is about $233,610 (USDA Food and Nutrition Service). Without looking anything up, take $1,000 a month, times 12 months a year, times 18 years from birth through age 17, and you get about $220,000. That comes out 1.1 times too low, and a guess that far off still scores 9.7 out of 10. Because only the ratio counts, anything between $120,000 and $470,000 was worth 7.0 or more.

   Source: USDA Food and Nutrition Service, Expenditures on Children by Families

2. 2. A day at CAVA: How much did an average CAVA restaurant sell on a typical day in 2025?

   Counts

   Restaurants open the whole year, with their delivery kitchens

   The answer: about $8,000. CAVA's revenue topped $1 billion for the first time in 2025.

   1. 600customers a day
   2. ×$15a bowl

   ≈$9,000

   The real answer is about $8,000 (CAVA Group). On a napkin, take 600 customers a day, times $15 a bowl, and you get about $9,000. It's 1.1 times too high, which as a guess would still have scored 9.5 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between $4,000 and $16,000 scores at least 7.0.

   Source: CAVA Group (SEC Form 10-K), CAVA Group Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025

3. 3. A family movie night: At Cinemark's average US ticket price and snack spending per moviegoer in 2025, what did a family of four spend on a trip to the movies?

   

   Counted

   Tickets plus popcorn, candy and drinks

   The answer: about $75. Cinemark's US moviegoers paid $10.52 a ticket on average and spent $8.30 each on snacks.

   1. 4people in the family
   2. ×$20each for a ticket and snacks

   ≈$80

   The true figure is about $75 (Cinemark Holdings, Inc.). Without looking anything up, take 4 people in the family, times $20 each for a ticket and snacks, and you get about $80. That comes out 1.1 times too high, and a guess that far off still scores 9.7 out of 10. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between $38 and $150 scores at least 7.0.

   Source: Cinemark Holdings, Inc., Cinemark Holdings, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results

4. 4. A day at Dollar Tree: How much did one Dollar Tree store sell on an average day in fiscal 2025?

   Prices

   Mostly $1.25 to $5

   The answer: about $5,700. Dollar Tree's comparable sales rose 5.3% in fiscal 2025, mostly from bigger baskets rather than more shoppers.

   1. 400shoppers a day
   2. ×$15a basket

   ≈$6,000

   The answer comes to about $5,700 (Dollar Tree, Inc.). To reason it out, take 400 shoppers a day, times $15 a basket, and you get about $6,000. That lands all but on the answer, worth 9.8 out of 10 as a guess. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between $2,900 and $12,000 scores at least 7.0.

   Source: Dollar Tree, Inc. (SEC Form 10-K), Dollar Tree Form 10-K for fiscal year ended January 31, 2026

All of puzzle #32 · The archive