Price tags · Puzzle #22 · Wednesday, October 21

Price tags: the answers

Four questions, each with one true number. Here they are with their answers, how to reason each one out, and where the number comes from. Play today's Price tags.

1. 1. Father's Day: How much were Americans expected to spend on Father's Day in total in 2026, according to the National Retail Federation?

   Planning to celebrate

   77% of consumers

   Survey by

   NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics

   The answer: about $27.9 billion. That topped the previous record of $24 billion, set in 2025.

   1. 200Madults who celebrate (most of us)
   2. ×$120each on gifts and outings

   ≈$24B

   The answer comes to about $27.9 billion (National Retail Federation). To reason it out, take 200 million adults who celebrate (most of us), times $120 each on gifts and outings, and you get about $24 billion. It's 1.2 times too low, which as a guess would still have scored 9.3 out of 10. Any guess from $14 billion to $56 billion scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

   Source: National Retail Federation, Father’s Day Spending to Hit Record $27.9 Billion

2. 2. Robux: How much did players spend on Roblox (bookings) in 2025?

   Counts

   Mostly purchases of Robux, the in-game currency

   The answer: about $6.8 billion. Roblox's bookings grew 55% in 2025, as it added about 60 million daily users in a year.

   1. 100Mplayers a day
   2. ×$60each a year

   ≈$6B

   The real answer is about $6.8 billion (Roblox Corporation). Without looking anything up, take 100 million players a day, times $60 each a year, and you get about $6 billion. The estimate is 1.1 times too low, close enough to score 9.5 out of 10. Any guess from $3.4 billion to $14 billion scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

   Source: Roblox Corporation (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1), Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter

3. 3. 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle card: What did an SGC 9.5 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle baseball card sell for, including buyer's premium, at Heritage Auctions in August 2022?

   

   What

   A 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle card graded 9.5 by SGC

   Condition

   Called the finest known example of the card

   Sold

   Heritage Auctions, August 2022

   The answer: $12.6 million. It more than doubled the previous record for a sports card.

   Napkin math: Many of these cards exist, but the single best copy of the most famous post-war card is a trophy, so think eight figures.

   The answer comes to $12.6 million (ESPN, as of August 2022). There's no tidy chain of numbers for this one, so the skill is a sense of scale: the answer is in the tens of millions. The target is wider than it looks: every guess between $6.3 million and $25 million scores at least 7.0.

   Source: ESPN, '52 Mantle card sells for $12.6M, shattering record

4. 4. A Peloton bike: What was the list price of Peloton's basic Cross Training Bike in the US in 2026?

   

   Seller

   Peloton

   Peloton's priciest treadmill (Tread+ Vision)

   $6,695

   The answer: $1,695. The step-up Cross Training Bike+ was listed at $2,695.

   1. $1,000for a gym-quality exercise bike
   2. +$500for its big touchscreen

   ≈$1,500

   The answer comes to $1,695 (Peloton). To reason it out, take $1,000 for a gym-quality exercise bike, plus $500 for its big touchscreen, and you get about $1,500. That comes out 1.1 times too low, and a guess that far off still scores 9.5 out of 10. Any guess from $850 to $3,400 scores 7.0 or better, because the game only counts how many times off you are.

   Source: Peloton, Shop Peloton Bikes

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